Energy Infrastructure 101

This section is designed for people that are brand new to energy infrastructure  or those that simply want a refresher. Energy infrastructure, or midstream, companies are engaged in the transportation, storage, and processing of natural resources. These fee-based business models benefit from the abundance of natural resources in the US and generate consistent cash flows. An investment in midstream is an investment in the build-out of US energy infrastructure over the next several decades.

Contents

  1. The Very Basics
  2. How Energy Infrastructure Companies Make Money
  3. How Investors Make Money with Energy Infrastructure
  4. The Pipeline Business, Explained
  5. Energy Renaissance
  6. What the North American Energy Landscape Means for Energy Infrastructure
  7. Risks

The Very Basics

Energy infrastructure companies are involved in the transportation, processing, and storage of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Historically, a majority of the midstream space has been structured as master limited partnerships, or MLPs (we won’t cover MLPs extensively in Energy Infrastructure 101, but those looking for more information can find it in our MLP Primer). However, C-Corporations have become more prominent in midstream in recent years.

The Basic EI Business Models

  1. Transportation Just like it sounds, transportation involves moving energy commodities like oil and natural gas from one place to another. In North America, most energy travels through a pipeline, but it can also move via truck, railcar, or ship. Pipelines are the cornerstone of the energy infrastructure space.
  2. Processing Processing encompasses any business that transforms a raw commodity into a usable form. It involves removing impurities like water and dirt from wellhead natural gas and separating the natural gas stream into pipeline-quality natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are used as heating fuels and petrochemical feedstocks.
  3. Storage Storage includes tanks, wells, and other facilities both above and below ground. These assets provide flexibility to the energy economy, so there is propane available for winter heating, gasoline for summer driving, and jet fuel for the holidays.

How Energy Infrastructure Companies Make Money

Energy infrastructure companies typically operate fee-based business models. EI companies earn a set fee for each barrel of oil or million British Thermal Unit (MMBtu) of natural gas transported, stored, or processed (in the case of natural gas) regardless of the price of the hydrocarbon. This is because these companies typically do not own the oil or gas. EI companies generally sign long-term contracts (5 to 20 years in length) with their customers, which makes for stable cash flows. Accordingly, the revenue equation for most business activities is fairly simple: price multiplied by volume. As such, more volume means more cash flows. On the price side, a federal agency sets the fee charged by interstate liquids pipelines, and the fee increases with inflation. Pipeline fees can also be negotiated with a customer based on the cost of operating the pipeline and market rates for liquids or natural gas pipelines. On the volume side, growing production of North American oil and natural gas has necessitated more energy infrastructure such as pipelines, storage tanks, and processing plants.

How Investors Make Money with Energy Infrastructure

If you own a stock, there are two ways to make money. The price of the stock increases and you can sell it for more than you bought it. Formally, this is known as price appreciation. The stock also likely pays you dividends. The amount of dividends relative to the share price is known as yield.

The historical average yield of energy infrastructure over the past 5 years has been around 5.5%, which means that if you invested $100, on average, you would be paid $5.50 each year. The chart below shows yields for energy infrastructure, represented by the AMNA, compared to other asset classes. Energy infrastructure yields nearly 6% and boasts a higher yield than utilities and real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are asset classes known for their income potential.

Source: Alerian as of March 29, 2019

The Pipeline Business, Explained

The modern pipeline network in the United States has its roots in the outbreak of World War II. Before the war, the East Coast was the largest consumer of energy in the country. Refined products (such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) were delivered from Gulf Coast refineries via tankers. Tankers also carried raw crude oil from the Middle East. However, once the US became involved in the war, German submarines began sinking these tankers. Together, the government and the petroleum industry built pipelines that could cover long distances and transport large amounts of oil. This network subsequently fueled the economic boom that followed the war., and many of those original pipelines are still in service today.

There are both large diameter trunklines that function like interstates (instead of being four lanes wide, they are often 42” in diameter, or large enough for a child to stand inside), as well as smaller delivery lines which connect the large pipelines to each town. Product traveling through trunklines is fungible—the customer will receive product on the other end that is the same quality as that which was sent, but they won’t be the exact same molecules. It is as if someone sent $100 to a college student through a bank. That student will not get the exact same $100 bill as his or her benefactor sent, but the student doesn’t care because $100 is $100. Money is fungible. However, smaller delivery lines operate on a batch system, where the exact same molecules are delivered as were shipped. In this case, our lucky college student gets a couple dozen cookies, and the ones delivered are the exact same cookies his or her parents baked, not cookies that some other people made.

Energy Renaissance

Prior to the 2000s, much of the energy industry was focused on peak oil and the ways companies and our society would have to shift in response. While producers knew that oil reserves existed, accessing the oil in a cost-effective way was still difficult. Experts forecasted that expensive and complex recovery methods would be needed to continue to produce even a modest number of barrels.

In the early 2000s, the natural gas industry in the US began widespread application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The technologies were not new, but the combination of both technologies makes it possible to profitably produce the large reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs trapped between layers of North American shale rock. Horizontal drilling was developed in the first half of the 20th century, and the first commercial applications of hydraulic fracturing took place in 1949. After seeing the success of natural gas companies in applying these technologies, oil producers began implementing the same drilling technology, seeing strong production growth from oil wells.

In 2009, the US became the world’s largest producer of natural gas. By 2012, the US had an abundance of natural gas, leading to lower prices, but gas production continued to grow. In 2014, rapid growth in US oil production had led to a global crude oversupply and weakness in oil prices. A multi-decade ban on US crude exports was lifted by Congress in December 2015.  Oil prices have gradually recovered since their relative bottoming in February 2016, and US oil production has continued to increase. In 2018, the US became the world’s largest oil producer and is now exporting millions of barrels of crude each day.

The term “energy renaissance” refers to the overwhelming growth in US energy production that has occurred and is expected to continue, with the US expected to become a net energy exporter by 2020.



Source: US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2019

What the North American Energy Landscape Means for Energy Infrastructure

Energy infrastructure companies are not the ones engaging in horizontal drilling or hydraulic fracturing. Instead, EI companies are typically focused on the more stable businesses within the energy complex. The midstream company that provides transportation, processing, and storage facilities for multiple producers has diversified its revenue stream and benefits broadly from growing energy production and exports. Simply put, growing energy production from the US and Canada (to a lesser extent), coupled with increasing demand domestically and overseas, requires more energy infrastructure.

Oil production growth has created a number of opportunities for midstream companies to build new pipelines connecting producing regions with demand centers, including the coast for export. Energy infrastructure companies are also building crude export terminals.

On the natural gas side, growing production and rising demand have created many opportunities for midstream. For example, several companies have built or are constructing liquefaction plants in the US and Canada where natural gas can be cooled and pressurized to a liquid form. This liquefied natural gas (LNG) can then be loaded onto ships for export. US LNG exports will help meet increasing demand for natural gas overseas. Midstream companies build the pipelines to LNG export facilities, natural gas-fired power plants, and necessary storage facilities. They also build the processing plants necessary for transforming raw natural gas into a usable form.

Complementing the growth in oil and natural gas, production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) has also grown. Natural gas liquids must be processed into their component parts to be usable, creating more demand for fractionation facilities (the formal term for plants that process NGLs). EI companies build NGL-dedicated pipelines and fractionation facilities, as well as NGL export facilities to meet overseas demand.

A 2018 Interstate Natural Gas Association of America study quantified just how much energy infrastructure would be needed in the US and Canada from 2018 to 2035. Taking an average of the two cases presented, $521 billion would be required for midstream oil and gas infrastructure investment or approximately $29 billion per year on average. The estimated infrastructure need for the US alone is $462 billion. For the energy infrastructure space, which had a total market capitalization of $519 billion at the end of 2018, the growth opportunity is significant.

Risks

If you have listened to a company’s earnings call, viewed an investor presentation, or perused a company’s annual report, you will have noticed disclaimers and/or a discussion of risk factors. Even if you don’t like reading fine print, PLEASE still read this. While some of these risks may be unlikely to occur, they could impact your expected total return.

Commodity Price Sensitivity – Since energy infrastructure companies do not own the oil and gas they transport, their business performance is not directly connected with the price of oil or gas. However, commodity prices can have implications as there are indirect connections between energy prices and the performance of midstream companies, even though profitability may not be directly impacted by commodity price fluctuations. If commodity prices are very low, upstream companies will drill less and demand will fall for gathering pipelines and other infrastructure. Additionally, in an environment with falling commodity prices, investor psychology may connect energy infrastructure with the broader energy sector and commodity prices beyond what the underlying business models would otherwise indicate. In other words, commodity prices can impact sentiment for energy infrastructure companies.

Environmental Risk – Some pipelines in major transportation corridors were constructed in the 1950s and 1960s. An aging pipeline system as well as high-profile oil spills and gas leaks have increased investor concerns regarding transportation safety and environmental risks. Pipelines are by far the safest form of transportation for oil and natural gas. Increased maintenance and new technologies enabling more frequent and accurate monitoring of pipelines has helped improve pipeline safety.

Renewable Energy – The potential for renewable forms of energy (solar, wind, hydro) to replace hydrocarbon-based energy is both the largest and least immediate risk to energy infrastructure. A game-changing technological breakthrough is likely many years away, and it will also take many years to fully implement. As an example, even global demand for coal increased in 2018, reflecting the longevity of energy sources and challenges in switching fuels. Moreover, petrochemicals are expected to drive significant demand growth for hydrocarbons, and renewable substitutes may not be readily available for petrochemical applications. If the next form of energy is transported in a gaseous or liquid form, it is highly likely that existing steel pipelines and storage facilities can be converted. For instance, liquid hydrogen could easily be moved by our current infrastructure.

Permitting Risks – The permitting process for a new pipeline involves federal and state government approvals and permits, as well as environmental impact studies and potentially eminent domain complications. Each state has its own regulations, and pipelines often pass through many states. Should an approval not be granted (or conditionally granted), a pipeline may need to be rerouted, which is an expensive and time-consuming necessity. It is at this stage that community and environmental protesters often delay the timeline. Any delays or cost overruns in the permitting process may make the project less profitable, as well as potentially prevent the pipeline from being built, resulting in lost sunk costs for the company.

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